Increasing your Agile Team's Outcome Predictability

Understanding Predictability in Agile Team Outcomes 

"Understanding Predictability in Agile Team Outcomes" refers to the study or analysis of how consistent and reliable the results or achievements of a team practicing agile methodologies can be. This involves examining the factors that contribute to the team's ability to deliver on time and within scope, as well as identifying potential challenges or obstacles that may impact their predictability. By understanding these dynamics, organizations can better manage and optimize their agile teams for more consistent and successful outcomes.


In today's rapidly changing world, the significance of accurate weather forecasts cannot be overstated. Similarly, in the world of software development, predictability is crucial for Agile teams. The ability to deliver outcomes predictably is a key factor in Agile team success. Achieving predictability can be challenging for Agile teams due to various factors such as capacity planning, sprint planning, product backlog refinement, transparency, and estimation. To increase predictability in Agile team outcomes, we need to address these factors.

Improving Predictability in Agile Teams

  • Prioritizing individuals and interactions over processes and tools is paramount. 
  • Challenges may arise with geographically dispersed teams, impacting interactions. 
  • Psychological safety within the team significantly influences commitment and outcome predictability. Trust affects psychological safety! Read here about the neuroscience of trust.














  • Fix the people problem - 'no matter what the client says the problem is, its always a people problem. Technical fixes alone are not enough!'
  • RAIDs -
    • Logging, understanding, and consistently tracking Risks, Assumptions, Issues, and Dependencies (RAIDs) contribute to increased predictability. 
    • Maintaining a RAID log and meticulous management are crucial aspects.
  • These were starters; continue reading ...

Technical Considerations in Software Development

  • Emphasizing clean code and consistently minimizing technical debt are vital for maintainability, sustainability, and scalability.
  • Regular code refactoring is equally important to ensure the technical robustness of the software.

Key Role of Capacity Planning

  • Effective capacity planning plays a vital role in sprint planning.
  • The team's commitment to transparent absence planning contributes significantly.
  • Correct capacity estimation and planning are pivotal for increasing predictability.

Transparency: Fostering Predictability

  • Working in silos is counterproductive and leads to dysfunctional teams. 
  • Transparency within the team and regarding sprint outcomes reduces the gap between commitments and achievements. 
  • Addressing issues like lack of team colocation or low psychological safety helps eliminate silos.

Enhancing Estimation Accuracy in Agile Projects

  • Story/task estimates (as good as possible) are essential for effective sprint planning. 
  • Story pointing is preferred for estimation, considering various factors like team members' skills and experience. 
  • Story estimation in 'time terms' is strongly discouraged.
  • Seeking ETA/SLA from dependent teams is crucial.

Effective Product Backlog Refinement

  • Product Backlog Refinement (PBR) is an opportunity to review issues/stories, ensuring clear understanding and critical definition of acceptance criteria. 
  • Regular PBR meetings ensure visibility into upcoming sprints.
  • Skipping or not having PBRs is not recommended and may be a recipe for disaster in the long run.

Role of Effective Sprint Planning in Predictability

  • Guidance: Ensuring story points worth 1.5 times the team's velocity are in refined state, enhances readiness during sprint planning.
  • It increases overall effectiveness and predictability. 
  • Having the capacity plan available during sprint planning and using empiricism to make sprint commitments contribute to better planning.

Changes to Sprint Backlog Mid-Sprint

  • Issues added or removed post-sprint, impacts the predictability.
  • This may be due to uncertainties about team capacity and the order/priority of product backlog items.

Utilizing Tools

  • While prioritizing "individuals and interactions", the knowledge & usage of "processes and tools" is crucial and can not be undermined.
  • Simplicity--the art of maximizing the amount of work not done--is essential.
  • While we "welcome changing requirements, even late in development", discipline in ALM tools like Jira is indispensable.
    • Establishing Working Agreements (WA) and Ways of Working (WoW) help setup discipline. 
    • Teams collaboratively deciding on "acceptable" measures for dealing with non-adherence.
    • Metrics, dashboards, and graphs serve as excellent information radiators, acting as a mirror for the team. 
  • It's about living up to agreements and commitments rather than imposing rules!

Contradiction/Flip side of the coin

 In the pursuit of increasing a team's outcome predictability, it is important to be mindful of the potential consequences of applying too many constraints. While the intention may be to streamline processes and achieve greater efficiency, an excessive focus on predictability may inadvertently stifle the team's ability to take risks and explore innovative ideas. This, in turn, could have a detrimental impact on the overall culture of innovation within the team. 


It is crucial to strike a balance between the need for predictability and the freedom to explore new possibilities, in order to avoid any unintended collateral damage. Setting outcome predictability as a key performance indicator for the team should be approached with caution, taking into consideration the potential trade-offs that may arise.


"Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post are solely those of the author and contributor Manish Patel, and do not necessarily reflect the views of any organization or entity. The advice and information provided are based on the author's personal experience and should be used at the reader's discretion. The author is not responsible for any decisions made by readers based on the content provided. It is advisable to seek professional advice for specific situations as needed."

From the desk of,

Jasdev Singh | PMI-ACP, PSM, ICP-ACC
(Humanitarian, Agilist, Minimalist)

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